Assumptions

You are assuming that the US government intends not to recognize the November elections unless Mr. Zelaya is reinstated. I have never assumed that. Granted, only time will tell. I’ve always believed that, in private, both President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton are happy to be rid of Mr. Zelaya. It would be horrendous geo-politics to state that in public. So long as there is relative calm in Honduras and the elections proceed in a peaceful, organized, transparent and fair manner (… and there is a massive turnout of voters, to boot), then there is no reason for the US not to be the first to recognize the results of the elections

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4 thoughts on “Assumptions

  1. Marco,

    We would only assume that because of the statement that they have made. Why would you assume anything different. If the U.S. is concerned about a fair election, safeguards could be put in place. While everything may not be black and white, it is pretty apparent as to what Zelaya was up to and I believe that the Honduran congress/courts made their decisions based on their constitution and in the best interest of their country. Exiling Zelaya was a bad idea and I understand the reason that was given but I am not totally convinced that it is the whole story.
    The fact that the U.S. and media has made this out as a military coup is also slanted, so I have to ask “Why paint that picture”? Too many unanswered questions hear to believe there isn’t another agenda.

    Regardless, the U.S.state department IMO is not supporting the rule of law and their insistence to not communicate with the current President/government, is very suspicious. I have called the State Department a number of times and can not get a call returned. Furthermore, the U.S. travel advisory is way over the top, as you may know, and at worst should exclude the Bay Islands from those advisories.

    It might interest you to take a look at the recent events in the Turks and Caicos and tell me how that is any different than what happened in Honduras yet there is no condemnation of the British.

  2. Hi Bruce… There are many reasons I assume that US policy toward Honduras is based on other factors other than what the State Department says in public. I’ve analyzed the importance of Honduras to the US with regard to the US wars on illegal drugs, illegal immigration, and terrorism. I’ve analyzed the importance of the US military presence at Soto Cano AB based on these activities. I’ve also looked at the critical role that Soto Cano plays in a support function for the US plans to expand their military presence in Columbia. I’ve looked at how important it is for the US to isolate Hugo Chavez, and how publicly supporting the ousting of Zelaya would’ve helped rather than hurt Chavez. I could go on and on, but these are just my opinion based on my analysis of geo-political strategizing, history, and my version of common sense. But I am also read between the lines of what the State Department says. Look for example at the following statements of Richard Verma, Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, to Sen. Richard Lugar of the Foreign Relations Committee: ” Our policy and strategy for engagement is not based on supporting any particular politician or individual.” and “We also recognize that President Zelaya’s insistence on undertaking provocative actions contributed to the polarization of Honduran society and led to a confrontation that unleashed the events that led to his removal.” The key here is not to listen to what the State Department says to the media, but rather look at what it says in its official statements and letters to Congress. Also, look seriously at what the State Department does, but more importantly what it does NOT do. The US could bring down the Micheletti government overnight if it wanted to. It will not do that. It will only toy around with minor threats and minor sanctions for the sake of showing the world that it is onboard with everyone else. It is pure show, in my opinion. But only time will tell.

    • I have to disagree with a few of your assessments, respectfully of course.
      I believe the world has followed the lead of the U.S. not the other way around. I think Obama is more like Chavez than anyone wants to admit. He is a socialist. He has surrounded himself with people of the same ideology. Take a look at his diversity Czar Mark Lloyd a big fan of Chavez. I do not believe this is accidental as there are many others within the administration that have no problem with Chavez or Castro. This is the elitist attitude of many, that Government control is better.

      I hope you are right and in the end I believe that a democratically elected President will in fact be recognized but I think there is going to need to be an international presence for the elections.

      There is a very strong Marxist/Socialist movement in this country and many are hiding behind other agenda but make no mistake about it. It is going to take the will of the people and a unified strong voice to keep this from happening. I firmly believe that the people of Honduras have a more precious conviction of democracy than those in the states as they have become complacent, spoiled and believe “what is said, not what is done”.
      I watch as our corrupt politicians say one thing and do another. We have reached the height of hypocrisy and I believe the U.S citizens are revolting.
      Nov 2010 is going to be the tell tale. If it were up to me, I would vote every single Congress person out of office and start over regardless of whether I think they did a good job or not. Thank you for your service but its time for someone else. If we stop re-electing these career politicians we could end lobbyists and special interest groups which is the underlying problem with corruption. No politician is above the law and I am proud of Honduras handled Zelaya. Maybe our administration thinks otherwise.

  3. Hi Bruce… yep, I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one. We definitely see things from different perspectives… although not entirely, particularly as it relates to Mr. Zelaya. I too am glad that he is out of power. I think that, under the circumstances that Mr. Zelaya created in Honduras, he provoked his ousting. He gambled big and lost big. I do think you underestimate and misjudge President Obama, but we can leave that to a future conversation. My best to you, Marco

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